{"id":6259,"date":"2014-03-01T08:45:24","date_gmt":"2014-03-01T08:45:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.iiees.ac.ir\/fa\/?p=6259"},"modified":"2014-03-01T08:45:24","modified_gmt":"2014-03-01T08:45:24","slug":"2014-03-01-08-52-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/old.iiees.ac.ir\/fa\/2014-03-01-08-52-11\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0645\u062f\u0644 \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u200c \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647 \u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u06a9\u0627\u062a\u0627\u0644\u0648\u06af \u0632\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u0646"},"content":{"rendered":"
\u0645\u062f\u0644 \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u200c \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647 \u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u0627\u0633
\u06a9\u0627\u062a\u0627\u0644\u0648\u06af \u0632\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u0646<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/div>\n

\u0645\u062c\u0631\u06cc \u067e\u0631\u0648\u0698\u0647: <\/div>\n
\u0645\u0647\u062f\u06cc \u0632\u0627\u0631\u0639<\/div>\n
\u0647\u0645\u06a9\u0627\u0631:
\u0639\u0627\u0631\u0641 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u06cc \u0644\u0627\u0634\u06a9<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

\u0686\u06a9\u06cc\u062f\u0647<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u067e\u0698\u0648\u0647\u0634\u060c \u0628\u0627 \u062a\u0648\u062c\u0651\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0642\u0648\u06cc \u062e\u0637\u0631 \u0648\u0642\u0648\u0639 \u0632\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0637\u0642 \u067e\u0631 \u062c\u0645\u0639\u06cc\u062a \u06a9\u0634\u0648\u0631\u060c \u0631\u0648\u0634\u0647\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u06cc \u0648 \u0647\u062f\u0641\u0645\u0646\u062f \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u06a9\u0648\u062a\u0627\u0647 \u0645\u062f\u062a\u060c \u0645\u06cc\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u062f\u062a \u0648 \u0628\u0644\u0646\u062f\u0645\u062f\u062a \u0632\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0647 \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0633\u062a. \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0631\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0627\u060c \u0627\u0628\u062a\u062f\u0627 \u0645\u0641\u0647\u0648\u0645 \u06a9\u0644\u0627\u0646 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0634\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u062f\u0631\u062e\u062a\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0648 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u062e\u0627\u0628\u060c \u0641\u0636\u0627\u06cc \u062d\u0627\u0644\u062a\u060c \u0633\u0631\u06cc\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u0645\u0639\u06cc\u0646\u060c \u0641\u0631\u0622\u06cc\u0646\u062f\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u0641\u06cc\u060c \u0622\u0634\u0648\u0628\u0646\u0627\u06a9\u060c \u0645\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0648\u0628 \u0648 \u0634\u0628\u0647 \u062a\u0646\u0627\u0648\u0628\u06cc\u060c \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u067e\u0630\u06cc\u0631\u06cc \u0648 \u0646\u06af\u0631 \u0634\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a \u0628\u0647 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647 \u0628\u0627 \u0631\u0648\u06cc\u06a9\u0631\u062f \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0646\u0634\u0627\u0646\u0647 \u0647\u0627 \u0648 \u0631\u0648\u06cc\u06a9\u0631\u062f \u0622\u0645\u0627\u0631\u06cc-\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u06cc \u0627\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0647 \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0633\u062a. \u0633\u067e\u0633 \u0628\u0627 \u062a\u0642\u0633\u06cc\u0645 \u06a9\u0634\u0648\u0631 \u0628\u0647 \u0686\u0647\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u0647 \u0627\u0632 \u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0622\u0647\u0646\u06af \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647 \u062e\u06cc\u0632\u06cc\u060c \u0628\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0632 \u0636\u0631\u06cc\u0628 \u062a\u063a\u06cc\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0628\u06cc\u0646 \u0648\u0642\u0648\u0639 \u0632\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0644\u06cc \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u0646\u060c \u062f\u0631 \u0647\u0631 \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u0647 \u0628\u0633\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u06a9\u0645\u06cc\u062a\u060c \u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u06af\u0648\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u062a\u0648\u0632\u06cc\u0639 \u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u0641\u06cc\u060c \u06a9\u0646\u062f \u062a\u063a\u06cc\u06cc\u0631 \u06cc\u0627 \u062a\u0646\u062f \u062a\u063a\u06cc\u06cc\u0631\u060c \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u0640\u06cc\u0646 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647\u060c \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u0627\u0628\u062f\u0627\u0639\u06cc BZEFM \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u06cc \u0648 \u0627\u0632 \u0637\u0631\u06cc\u0642 \u0628\u0647\u06cc\u0646\u0647 \u0633\u0627\u0632\u06cc \u0645\u0641\u0647\u0648\u0645 \u062e\u0648\u0634\u0647 \u0628\u0646\u062f\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u060c
\u062e\u0648\u0634\u0647 \u0628\u0646\u062f\u06cc \u0628\u0644\u0646\u062f \u0645\u062f\u062a\u060c \u0647\u0645 \u062f\u0631 \u06a9\u0627\u062a\u0627\u0644\u0648\u06af \u0627\u0635\u0644\u06cc \u0648 \u0647\u0645 \u062f\u0631 \u06a9\u0627\u062a\u0627\u0644\u0648\u06af \u0628\u0627\u0642\u06cc\u0645\u0627\u0646\u062f\u0647 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u062f\u0627\u0631\u062f. \u0633\u067e\u0633\u060c \u0645\u062f\u0644 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u06cc \u0628\u0644\u0646\u062f-\u0645\u062f\u062a \u06a9\u0627\u06af\u0627\u0646 \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u06a9\u0627\u062a\u0627\u0644\u0648\u06af \u0632\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0628\u0647 \u0648\u0642\u0648\u0639 \u067e\u06cc\u0648\u0633\u062a\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u062c\u0631\u0627 \u0648 \u067e\u0627\u0631\u0627\u0645\u062a\u0631\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u062a\u0646\u0638\u06cc\u0645 \u0648 \u0636\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u0628 \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u0647 \u0627\u06cc \u0645\u0648\u0631\u062f \u0646\u06cc\u0627\u0632 \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u0628\u0627 \u062a\u0648\u062c\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0627\u0637\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647\u200c\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u0628\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u06af\u0648\u0631\u06cc\u062a\u0645 \u0698\u0646\u062a\u06cc\u06a9 \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0633\u0628\u0647 \u0648 \u0628\u0647\u06cc\u0646\u0647\u200c\u0633\u0627\u0632\u06cc \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0646\u062f. \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0633\u0628\u0647 \u062a\u0627\u0646\u0633\u0648\u0631 \u06af\u0634\u062a\u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0648\u0637 \u0628\u0647 \u0686\u0646\u062f \u0632\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647 \u0628\u0632\u0631\u06af \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u0648 \u0646\u0642\u0634\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0686\u06af\u0627\u0644\u06cc \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0628\u0627\u0632\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u0645\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a\u060c \u0628\u0647\u00a0 \u0627\u0632\u0627\u06cc \u0636\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u0628 \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u0647 \u0627\u06cc \u0631\u0633\u0645 \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0646\u062f.
\u0628\u0627 \u062a\u0648\u062c\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u06cc\u062c \u0628\u0647 \u062f\u0633\u062a \u0622\u0645\u062f\u0647 \u0628\u0647\u062a\u0631\u06cc\u0646 \u062d\u0627\u0644\u062a\u060c \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0648\u0637 \u0628\u0647 \u062f\u0648\u0631\u0647 \u0627\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a\u00a0 \u06a9\u0647 \u06a9\u0627\u062a\u0627\u0644\u0648\u06af \u0628\u0647 \u062f\u0648 \u0646\u06cc\u0645\u0647 \u0645\u0633\u0627\u0648\u06cc \u062a\u0642\u0633\u06cc\u0645 \u0645\u06cc \u0634\u0648\u062f.
\u0631\u0627\u0633\u062a\u06cc \u0633\u0646\u062c\u06cc \u0627\u0646\u062c\u0627\u0645 \u06af\u0631\u0641\u062a\u0647 \u0646\u0634\u0627\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u0631\u0648\u0634\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u06a9\u0648\u062a\u0627\u0647 \u0645\u062f\u062a \u0645\u06cc\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u062f\u062a \u0648 \u0628\u0644\u0646\u062f\u0645\u062f\u062a \u0627\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0647 \u0634\u062f\u0647\u060c \u0648\u0636\u0639\u06cc\u062a \u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u0642\u0628\u0648\u0644\u06cc \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u0631\u062f.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u0648\u0627\u0698\u0647<\/strong>\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u06a9\u0644\u06cc\u062f\u06cc<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u06cc\u060c \u0636\u0631\u06cc\u0628 \u062a\u063a\u06cc\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0637\u0642 \u062f\u0648\u06af\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647 \u0627\u06cc\u060c \u062a\u0627\u0646\u0633\u0648\u0631 \u06af\u0634\u062a\u0627\u0648\u0631\u060c \u0627\u0644\u06af\u0648\u0631\u06cc\u062a\u0645 \u0698\u0646\u062a\u06cc\u06a9<\/p>\n

Probabilistic Forecast Model Base on the Earthquake Catalogue of Iran<\/strong><\/div>\n
\n<\/div>\n

Authors:M. Zare, A. Bali Lashak<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n
According to the earthquake records in Iran, which imply a great risk for such events in highly populated areas, we will, by this dissertation, try to discuss the short-term, mid-term and long-term events predictability through logical prospects and via well organized approaches. First, the main framework of forecasting procedure is discussed which includes forecasting trees and selection, state space, time series, stochastic, chaotic, periodic, and semi-periodic processes. This section will also include notes about predictability of a typical phenomenon and different views on earthquake forecasting by means of precursors and through a probabilistic-statistical prospect. Next, the ground surface will be divided into four different sub-regions according to different seismicity rates of the regions. This will be done by means of a time coefficient for changes that occur between different subsequent earthquake events in the country, Iran. Then according to the amount of this coefficient, an appropriate random distribution pattern, rather high or low in frequency of changes will be picked and used for the probabilistic prediction of a future earthquake event.
In the following, the new innovative approach BZEFM will be introduced which will work mainly on clustering of the earthquakes and improvement of the clusters and the definition of new zones namely dual seismic zones and, through this, will offer new model for short-term and mid-term event forecasting based on statistical and probabilistic tools.
As the survey goes further, it will be proved that the long-term clustering does exist both in the main and in the remained catalogue. Kagan’s forecasting model for long-term probabilistic predictions will be later used as the algorithm running on Iran’s data (available via the past earthquake events catalogue) and the setting parameters and regional coefficients needed in this method will be further calculated and optimized through genetic algorithm and with a look at the data gathered on Iran’s seismic activity. Calculation of the tensor momentum for some several big earthquakes in Iran will be also noticed, and finally the forecasting probability density plans will be outlined for different time intervals and different regional coefficients, amongst which the best plan will be chosen as the one with two equal halves in the catalogue. Short-term, mid-term, and long-term forecasting procedures yielded genuine results when applied to Iran’s earthquake event catalogue.<\/div>\n


Keywords:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Probabilistic Forecasting (prediction), Coefficient of variations, Dual Seismic Zones, Genetic Algorithm, Tensor Moment.<\/div>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0645\u062f\u0644 \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u200c \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647 \u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u06a9\u0627\u062a\u0627\u0644\u0648\u06af \u0632\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u062c\u0631\u06cc \u067e\u0631\u0648\u0698\u0647: \u0645\u0647\u062f\u06cc \u0632\u0627\u0631\u0639 \u0647\u0645\u06a9\u0627\u0631:\u0639\u0627\u0631\u0641 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u06cc \u0644\u0627\u0634\u06a9 \u0686\u06a9\u06cc\u062f\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u067e\u0698\u0648\u0647\u0634\u060c \u0628\u0627 \u062a\u0648\u062c\u0651\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0627\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u2026<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2008-06-21-08-21-37"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/old.iiees.ac.ir\/fa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/old.iiees.ac.ir\/fa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/old.iiees.ac.ir\/fa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/old.iiees.ac.ir\/fa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/old.iiees.ac.ir\/fa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6259"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/old.iiees.ac.ir\/fa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6259\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/old.iiees.ac.ir\/fa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/old.iiees.ac.ir\/fa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/old.iiees.ac.ir\/fa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}