{"id":5613,"date":"2012-02-15T09:39:32","date_gmt":"2012-02-15T09:39:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.iiees.ac.ir\/fa\/?p=5613"},"modified":"2012-02-15T09:39:32","modified_gmt":"2012-02-15T09:39:32","slug":"%17","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/old.iiees.ac.ir\/fa\/%17\/","title":{"rendered":"\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0639\u0647 \u0645\u062f\u0644 \u0644\u0631\u0632\u0647\u200c\u0627\u06cc \u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u062a \u062c\u0627\u0646\u06cc\u060c \u0645\u0637\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0647 \u0645\u0648\u0631\u062f\u06cc \u0628\u062e\u0634\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u0647 \u06f1\u06f7 \u0634\u0647\u0631 \u062a\u0647\u0631\u0627\u0646"},"content":{"rendered":"
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<\/div>\n

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<\/p>\n

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Developing Seismic Human Loss Model – Case Study: A District of Tehran<\/strong><\/div>\n

Authors: B. Mansouri, M.R. Ghayamghamian, K. Amini Hosseini, N. Govahi<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n

The annual seismic loss is an increasing figure in the world. This is mainly due to the presence of old and vulnerable urban fabrics and the result of ongoing growing number of low standard construction within earthquake prone zones. This fact is even more important for Iran and its large urban settlements such as Tehran where the number of old vulnerable settings is high. In an effective risk and disaster management system, it is essential to compile “element at risk” data sets and their associated vulnerability functions. The “elements at risk” can be briefly described as the building inventories, infrastructure systems and the population. Estimation of the urban building damages lead to the assessment of the human losses. Such information is fundamental for planning the preparedness phases and also to devise proper emergency responses schemes.
Unfortunately, minimal works were reported regarding the development of building loss and human casualty functions or models for Iran. In this research, considering the domestic conditions for the country and the availability of spatial data and information, a human loss model is devised according to an event tree model (inspired from the HAZUS program) for Iran, specifically for Tehran. In this line, a multi-facet algorithm is developed to estimate the human loss. Then, the results are compared and adjusted with the findings associated with the building damages and the casualties of the Bam earthquake of 2003. For this, it was necessary to compile and process the data gathered for the Bam event from different sources. In order to complete the building database with individual building information, Very High Resolution optical satellite images and aerial photos were merged with survey data and stored in GIS format. This information is used to calibrate the proposed human loss model.
Finally, considering the availability of spatial urban data and proper attribute information, a study area within Tehran, the municipality district 17 is chosen for implementing the model. Considering an earthquake scenario and applying the empirical function of Bam and taking into account the residential population of 254463 for the study area, the number of killed, seriously injured and slightly injured or healthy people are estimated as 29357, 15580 and 89988 respectively, for the daytime scenario. And, for the night-time case, these numbers are 49639, 26344 and 152150 respectively. These figures are highly alerting. Considering the nominal construction typology, the unreinforced masonry, the count of the killed people is many time folds the results suggested by HAZUS. <\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Disaster Management, Risk Management, Human Casualty, Population Vulnerability, Event-tree Model.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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